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Debt markets


Australians are facing an economic environment of rapidly rising interest rates.

Markets lock in pre-Christmas rate rise

Bond traders are certain of a cash rate increase by Christmas, implying a 50 per cent chance of a follow-up move.

  • Cecile Lefort

This Month

Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell says there may still be tightening in the pipeline.

Cloudy economic outlook causes chaos in safe haven bonds

Ten-year US Treasury yields breached 5 per cent again before crashing, as investors reposition bets amid a muddied economic picture.

  • Cecile Lefort
Fed boss Jerome Powell’s next opportunity to check bond volatility will be on November 1.

The Fed pivot that turbulent Treasuries need

At a minimum, US policymakers need to shift from backward-looking data to combining data dependency with a clearly articulated economic vision.

  • Mohamed El-Erian
The RBA will scrutinise inflation data on Wednesday.

ASX to fall, weak $A worsens oil pain, rate hike fears

Australian shares are poised to fall 0.9 per cent at the return to trading on Monday, after suffering their worst week in four weeks amid the MidEast conflict.

  • Updated
  • Cecile Lefort and Ronald Mizen
The conflict in the Middle East is adding to demand for haven assets including Treasuries, and pushing up crude oil prices.

Treasury yields decline after 10-year fails again at 5pc

After being spurred to the highest levels since at least 2007 this week, most US government bond yields were lower.

  • Elizabeth Stanton and Ye Xie
Fed Powell chief said there may still be tightening in the pipeline.

Oil, bond yields soar on Middle East turmoil and rates anguish

Oil prices inched closer to $US100 on fears of supply disruption and the US 10-year bond yield broke 5 per cent on the belief that rates will stay high.

  • Cecile Lefort
Volunteers and NGO staff take part in a protest at the Rafah border after a massive blast hit the Ahli Arab Hospital in North Sinai, Egypt.

Rising Middle East tensions advance bond sell-off

US and Australian bond yields soared to a decade high on growing concerns about the Israel-Hamas war spreading, taking the $A close to a one-year low.

  • Cecile Lefort
Anna Hughes, chief executive of the Australian Office of Financial Management.

Investors rush to 31-year Aussie bond paying ‘attractive’ 5pc yield

The Australian government extended its debt profile with a heavily oversubscribed $8 billion 2054 bond sold at home and overseas.

  • Cecile Lefort
Luci Ellis, ex RBA official, started this month as Westpac’s chief economist.

Westpac’s Ellis says RBA clues could point to tightening

Ex-RBA official, now Westpac economist, Luci Ellis believes the language changes in the RBA’s October minutes mean it may raise interest rates again.

  • Cecile Lefort
Howard Marks, co-founder of Oaktree Capital, sees a regime change coming.

Howard Marks just said the most dangerous words for investors

The Wall Street icon has made one of the biggest calls in his career by predicting those who “confuse brains and a bull market” might be about to suffer.

  • James Thomson
Smoke rises following an Israeli airstrike in Gaza City.

Why the rush to safe haven assets isn’t likely to last

The question for investors is how to make sense of the volatility arising from the tension between the higher-for-longer interest rate environment, and capital flows to assets deemed safe during times of turmoil like war.

  • Chris Dickman

Wild bond market moves show loss of anchors

The rout in the US government bond market can be attributed to the absence of all of its anchors, according to Mohamed El-Erian.

  • Isabelle Lee and Jonathan Ferro
Jerome Powell, chairman of the US Federal Reserve.

Treasuries’ best day since March driven by signs Fed may be done

Investors are starting to bet that the worst ever rout in the US bond market might be coming to an end.

  • Ruth Carson and Garfield Reynolds
Interest rates are likely to remain structurally high for a number of years, which is not reflected in equity, commercial property, residential real estate, venture capital, high-yield bond and/or private debt prices.

Oaktree’s Rosenberg says credit will trump equity returns

High-yield bond manager David Rosenberg says we’re in a rare situation where investors can earn sharemarket-like returns from buying corporate debt.

  • Jonathan Shapiro

House price rally not sustainable, warn economists

Many have pushed back expectations that the housing supply shortage, high immigration and a peak in interest rates will continue to support property prices.

  • Cecile Lefort
Investors are hunting for potential blow-ups in financial markets.

10 of the best opinion reads from this week

A fresh mess in US politics will do nothing to take the heat out of surging bond yields, and the ripple effects have clearly spread to Australian equity and currency markets.

Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell.

Why the shift in the US yield curve means investors need to be nimble

The Fed is likely to start cutting rates in the next six to 12 months. But nothing is certain – which is why investors need to take a defensive stance.

  • Vimal Gor
The turbulence in the bond market will have an impact across the wider economy.

The 5pc bond market means pain is heading everyone’s way

The era of free money is over and everything from housing to mergers and acquisitions are being upended.

  • Chris Anstey, Thyagaraju Adinarayan and Jack Sidders
The US Federal Reserve said it may lift interest rates to combat inflation.

Pundits see no let-up in savage US bond sell-off

Ten-year bond yields climbed to 16-year highs on expectations of “higher for longer” rates, and there is speculation they could top 7 per cent due to sticky inflation.

  • Cecile Lefort
The relentless surge in bond yields has sparked a sell-off in risk assets.

Bond heretics, not the vigilantes, pose biggest risk for yields

If the reasons for owning government debt can no longer be taken for granted, managers may question owning any of it at all, no matter what the price.

  • Simon White