This Month
House price rally not sustainable, warn economists
Many have pushed back expectations that the housing supply shortage, high immigration and a peak in interest rates will continue to support property prices.
- Cecile Lefort
El Nino, fuel costs could help push rates higher, economists warn
Analysts are worried that inflation is set to accelerate from a surging oil price and the prospect of higher food prices from a hot, dry summer.
- Cecile Lefort
Economists push back RBA rate cut to August 2024
A strong job market, sticky inflation and rising oil prices have prompted economists to once again defer the timing of the first expected RBA rate cut.
- Cecile Lefort
The RBA is ‘flying blind’ on inflation, says former staffer
The Reserve Bank is “flying blind” on the biggest risk in the inflation equation, the speed of wages growth, warns its former head of domestic markets, Jonathan Kearns.
- Cecile Lefort
July
Rate pain won’t hit households until 2024
One economist says the ‘real fright’ will come when job losses mount late next year up to an unemployment rate of 4.5 per cent.
- Joanne Tran
RBA review forces higher peak in cash rate
A change tabled by a review into the Reserve Bank may result in interest rates staying higher for longer, economists have warned.
- Jonathan Shapiro and Joanne Tran
RBA set to stay tighter for longer
The Australian Financial Review’s survey of 27 economists predicts the RBA will not cut interest rates until May 2024.
- Joanne Tran
The RBA’s dealing room was a highlight for this economist
Commonwealth Bank senior economist Kristina Clifton say interest rates cuts won’t happen this year and sees a 50 per cent chance of a recession in Australia.
- Cecile Lefort
April
Property, retailers, non-banks most at risk, warn economists
The pain may not be over for businesses as consumers slash spending amid higher borrowing costs and cost pressures.
- Cecile Lefort
Economists urge Treasury to preserve RBA’s independence
Many economists expect RBA governor Philip Lowe to leave in September, but urged the government to preserve the bank’s sovereignty when it appoints a new chief.
- Cecile Lefort
Economists bet on RBA rate cut in February 2024
The Australian Financial Review’s survey of 36 economists puts the first post-pandemic rate cut in play by February 2024, a quarter tip it could happen this year.
- Cecile Lefort
February
Most economists do not expect the RBA to cut rates in 2023
HSBC chief economist Paul Bloxham is expecting quarter-percentage point increases in February and March.
- Ronald Mizen
January
Economists want more RBA rates transparency from review
A rejigged RBA would have a separate monetary policy committee, transparent policy deliberations, and more external experience at its helm, say economists.
- Cecile Lefort
US economy headed for recession, but only a mild one
The US economy will experience a recession this year as the Fed remains resolute in its mission to halt inflation. But Goldman and Morgan Stanley disagree.
- Cecile Lefort
RBA rebuilds trust as bigger test awaits
The RBA has restored some of its dented credibility in swiftly taking the cash rate higher, but its decision-making this year will be crucial amid an ongoing review.
- Cecile Lefort
Everything must go right for Australia to dodge a recession
Barrenjoey economist Jo Masters is optimistic that Australia will avoid a recession this year, but all the numbers need to come in as expected.
- Updated
- Cecile Lefort
Australian dollar tipped to extend recovery in 2023
Economists forecast the local currency to hit US70¢ by the middle of 2023 as the era of US dollar dominance crumbles.
- Emma Rapaport
RBA interest rate pause on the cards
A minority of economists say the Reserve Bank of Australia will start cutting this year, but there are two rises expected before its tightening cycle ends.
- Cecile Lefort
October 2022
Economists lift US cash rate forecasts, recession fears rattle bonds
US bond yields shot up after the Fed said it will raise rates, while eurozone inflation in double digits aggravated fears of an economic shock.
- Cecile Lefort
Gulf widens between economists and rate hawks
The RBA cash rate will hit 3.1 per cent by the end of 2022 according to The Australian Financial Review’s economist survey, but rates futures markets are of a different opinion.
- Cecile Lefort
