After slow start, EV sales pick up speed

Still long way to go

The vast majority of those cars will still be Teslas, however, as the American company outsells all other battery electric vehicles on our market combined, despite having only two models on sale (the 3 and the Y), and despite prices starting above $60,000.

There is still a long way to go in Australia’s EV transformation. The dominant force on the market, Toyota, offers no fully electric vehicles and in September, single-handedly outsold Tesla with just one big internal combustion engine ute, the HiLux. Sales of the Ford Ranger, another big combustion engine ute, also exceeded Tesla’s total.

And there are still about 20 million petrol and diesel vehicles on our roads, all contributing to direct CO2 emissions.

Nonetheless, Australia’s former chief scientist, Alan Finkel, says he is encouraged by the jump in EV sales.

“Electric vehicles are better for the environment, even when full lifecycle emissions and electricity sourced in Australia are taken into account,” he says. “Electric vehicles are a better driving experience, they are low cost to run, and for owners with home charging, they are much more convenient than petrol cars.

“Range anxiety is fading away now that the standard range for new cars is between 300 km and 600 km. By the end of this decade, the upper end is likely to be closer to 1000 km. For all these reasons, new car buyers are increasingly turning to electric.”

Cutting emissions

But Finkel warns against complacency. Transport accounts for 18.7 per cent of our country’s total emissions, according to federal government data. He says that if the vehicle fleet is to be substantially zero emission by 2050, all new car sales will need to be zero emission by 2035. The other half of the puzzle, of course, is a net-zero electricity grid, which Finkel tells us is “difficult but achievable”.

“There is political will across the federal and state governments,” he says. “The challenges are the prolonged approval times for wind farms and transmission lines, and high costs for transmission line projects. [But] converting to electric vehicles is the easiest way to capitalise on low emissions’ electricity to substantially reduce Australia’s total annual emissions.”

Australia’s improving EV penetration is still modest compared with most developed nations. According to the EV Council, the international average is now 18 per cent of new car sales, although overseas figures tend to include plug-in hybrids, which do well on some markets but sell negligible numbers here. Norway is the gold standard with 90 per cent, while China is running at 31.2 per cent, and Germany, France and the UK now exceed 20 per cent.

Australia has no legislation regulating the output of petrol engines, so what will really accelerate EV sales here, according to the EV Council’s Natalie Thompson, are policy initiatives and a broader choice of models. The first, she says, should lead to the second.

“The development of fuel efficiency standards, which we are expecting to see implemented within the next 12 months … will have a really key role in providing more supply of more fuel-efficient and electric vehicles into the Australian market,” she says.

Thompson says the EV Council has recommended that Australia develops a globally competitive standard to comparable global markets like the US, EU and New Zealand by 2030 – at the latest.

“This is necessary to ensure that Australian transport emissions start to fall, and that the government meets its legislated emission reduction targets.”

The EV Council calculates that the ACT government offers the biggest incentive to EV buyers, followed by Queensland and NSW (though the stamp duty exemption and EV rebate in NSW will end on January 1, 2024). Victoria, alone, actively discourages people from choosing an EV.

However, the High Court last week rejected the Victorian government’s tax on electric vehicles as invalid, ruling that only the Commonwealth has the power to make such laws.

On the supply side, Australians should see increased choice in coming months. Newcomers will include Ford’s Mustang Mach-E SUV and the first battery VWs: the ID.4 SUV, followed by the ID.3 hatch and the ID.Buzz, an electric van pitched as the spiritual, green-running successor to the much-loved Kombi.

Due for release are the first Toyota, an SUV with the ungainly handle of bZ4X, and an updated Tesla Model 3. These will be joined by large new SUVs from Kia, Polestar, Volvo and Mercedes, and smaller offerings from Volvo and Audi (the EX30 and Q4 e-tron SUVs respectively). The stylish Renault Megane E-Tech will belatedly dock, along with a string of Chinese models, including an SUV from returning brand Chery.

Cadillac is also due to finally launch in this market, leading off with the handsome Lyriq SUV. At the most elevated end of the market, we’ll see the Gran Turismo Folgore EV coupe from Maserati, and the massive Spectre coupe from Rolls-Royce.