Why Britain’s next PM has memorised the Albo playbook

But he and his party are jittery. The Tories are an election-winning machine, and their bristling arsenal of wedges and scare campaigns has torpedoed Labour again and again. The scars of 1992 and 2015 still ache.

Admittedly, at those two elections the Conservatives were not reeling from the ethical missteps of Boris Johnson and the economic blunders of Liz Truss, which have combined to turn the Tories toxic.

The government feels tired and fractious, and voters are clearly in the mood for change. But those voters are also grappling with a cost-of-living crisis, and an uncertain economic outlook, leaving them cautious about the extent and nature of that change.

So Starmer’s strategy is the classic manoeuvre of a cautious opposition: shrink the target, play it safe, and wait for the government to stumble onto its own sword.

“We have seen this movie before,” says Labour strategist John McTernan, who has worked for both Tony Blair and Julia Gillard. It’s the Anthony Albanese playbook from 2022 – which Starmer and his team have studied, and learned by heart.

Writing in the Guardian recently, McTernan worried that Starmer, like Albanese, might “crouch too low” – playing it so safe that progressive voters become dispirited.

This is more of a worry in Britain than Australia because voting is not compulsory in the UK and elections are first-past-the-post. The Labour faithful, many of whom adored far-left ex-leader Jeremy Corbyn, need to be inspired to turn out. Otherwise, an opinion poll lead could evaporate amid election-day indifference.

The safety-first strategy can also frustrate swing voters, who want to know what Starmer stands for. He might be keeping that powder dry for the election campaign, but in the meantime he appears to stand for nothing but change itself.

“Labour is the change that the UK needs,” Starmer said in an email to supporters on Friday. The word “change” appeared in every second paragraph.

Sunak is hoping he can fill this vacuum by suggesting to voters what Starmer might stand for: higher taxes, or climate policies that hit the hip pocket. This worked for former Australian prime minister Scott Morrison in 2019, but not in 2022.

In another parallel with Australia, Starmer is not an especially charismatic or compelling leader. He hasn’t forged that strong connection with the electorate – just a better one than Sunak.

So the vibe in the media, and in the Conservative Party, is that there is still the tiniest chance that 2024 could be the Tory equivalent of Morrison’s 2019, not 2022.

Using the incumbents’ advantage, the Tories will certainly claw back some of the poll deficit. The gossamer thread of hope is that they could then fight a narrow seat-by-seat battle to victory. Or at least give themselves a shot at minority government.

But business, like the voters, seems to be getting ready for change. Lobbyists say that some companies are sending bigger or more senior delegations to the Labour Party conference than they did to the Conservatives’ shindig last week.

Money often knows which way the wind is blowing. It would take quite a hurricane from Sunak to push Starmer’s election juggernaut off course.