Why Anthony Albanese is entering an electoral danger zone
Anthony Albanese is entering a danger zone for his future prime ministerial prospects as important groups of voters begin to cast a critical eye on his performance, question the need for a Voice to parliament, and ask: “What have you done for me?”
That’s the view of John Black, an election analyst and former Labor senator from Queensland, who has noted the crucial role in Labor’s 2022 election victory of the so-called “aspirational left” – the progressive leaning but financially aspirational suburban home owners who are increasingly from migrant backgrounds that have dominated population growth over the past decade. But their support of the government came with strings attached.
“They’re Labor voters, but they also know they are the ones paying a lot of tax,” he said. “They are much more transactional electorally.”
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is entering a danger zone for his electoral popularity. Dion Georgopoulos
Amid a cost of living crisis hitting this group of voters hard – with rising home loan repayments, private school fees, private health insurance costs and grocery bills – the prime minister risked losing them if he was seen to be too focused on winning the referendum for an Indigenous Voice to parliament, Mr Black said.
“I don’t think they’ve reached that stage yet. They want to see Labor succeed, but they also want to see something as a result of it,” he said, adding that they tended to live in outer suburbs that are key to Labor’s electoral success.
Warning signs were detectable in the Fadden by-election in July, which Mr Black said showed the beginnings of the aspirational left switching from Labor and the Greens to the LNP and other third parties.
With mortgage stress rife across the country after the Reserve Bank’s 12 interest rate rises since May last year, the result showed swings to the LNP of up to 9 per cent in booths with high rates of mortgagees.
“What Fadden does tell us is that the aspirational left was relatively disaffected with Labor compared to the last election,” Mr Black said.
Red Bridge pollster Kos Samaras said in his view the group was primarily Indian families who had arrived in Australia over the past decade and were “highly skilled, aspirational and increasingly productive”.
Sydney’s outer suburbs, in electorates such as Greenway, “could be a problem” for Labor, according to Mr Samaras, but Melbourne looked safer.
The reason was largely down to property. While many wealthier Hindu migrants had been able to set up in Sydney, others, including the large the Punjabi Sikh community, which strongly back Labor, moved to Melbourne.
“It would take some doing to budge them off Labor,” he said.
Voice worries
While the aspirational left were more motivated by personal interest than any concern over the Voice, the same was not true of older non-university educated Australian-born voters also living in key outer electorates.
“That’s where Labor could find itself in trouble,” Mr Samaras said. The best examples of this group were in the Tasmanian battleground seats of Braddon, Bass and Lyons, where Labor is traditionally competitive.
Speaking about the Voice demographics, Mr Samaras said the whole debate had “taken on a very Brexit-like profile” and Mr Black said the moment the referendum campaign was over, Labor needed to “get back to its knitting”.
“They need to be talking to the Australian swinging voters in the outer and inner suburbs who are going to decide the outcome of the next election,” Mr Black said. “They need to stake out the ground for reform and begin to articulate it.
“As far as Labor is concerned, the PM has to take charge of the ship here and realise that the Australian electorate is not Grayndler writ large, just as Peter Dutton needs to realise the electorate is not Dickson writ large.”
The last point illustrates that votes leaving the Labor column would not necessarily flow to the Coalition.
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