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Voice support falls as frustration and familiarity rise

Phillip Coorey
Phillip CooreyPolitical editor

Support for an Indigenous Voice to parliament has plunged over the past five months as familiarity with the referendum proposal has increased, as has a view among voters that it is distracting from bread and butter concerns.

The latest AFR/Freshwater Strategy Poll shows support for a Yes vote is just 33 per cent, a fall of 15 percentage points since May, while the No vote has 50 per cent support and 17 per cent are undecided.

With less than three weeks until the referendum, support for the Voice is 33 per cent, while the No vote has reached 50 per cent and 17 per cent are undecided. If the undecideds are excluded, the No vote is 60 per cent and the Yes vote 40 per cent.

Offering a glimmer of hope for the Yes campaign is that 28 per cent of those polled may yet change their minds.

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Either way, the Yes campaign and the Albanese government faces a formidable challenge to win the October 14 referendum, which requires a majority of the national vote and a majority Yes vote in at least four of the six states.

But the poll suggests the more the prime minister and government talk about the Voice, the more it turns off voters.

The poll of 1003 voters, taken from Friday to Sunday, shows that about 15 per cent of voters have shifted from a Yes vote to a No vote over the course of the campaign.

Of those, 60 per cent say they did so because they felt the Voice was distracting from the bigger national priorities, especially the cost of living and housing.

The next most commonly cited reason (52 per cent) was that the more they found out about the Voice, the less they liked it.

Another 46 per cent said the Yes campaign had failed to make a compelling case, 41 per cent believed it would lead to a treaty or reparation payments, 33 per cent had lost faith in Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, 22 per cent said the No campaign had made a compelling case and 19 per cent believed it would “legitimise the occupation of sovereign Aboriginal land”.

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On Sunday, Mr Albanese sought to blunt the scare tactics of the Opposition and the No campaign by promising the Coalition an equal say in the design of the Voice should the Yes vote prevail.

Launching the Uniting Church’s Yes campaign, the prime minister said if the nation voted Yes on October 14, he would establish a broad joint parliamentary committee, with co-chairs from Labor and the Coalition, to oversee the development of legislation for the Voice Advisory Group.

“I indicated this when I met with [Opposition Leader] Peter Dutton and [Nationals leader] David Littleproud, way back in March, and I’ve confirmed that in a discussion that I’ve had with Peter Dutton, just over this weekend,” he said.

“I think it’s important that if Australians vote Yes, that we move forward together to put in place the legislation with as broad a support as possible, in order to show the same spirit that we’re asking Australians to show by voting Yes, on October 14.”

‘Rigorous bipartisan process’

Mr Dutton’s signature criticism of the proposal to enshrine the Voice in the Constitution is the lack of detail concerning its structure and operation.

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Liberals for Yes welcomed the commitment.

“This considered announcement ensures that any legislation establishing the Voice to parliament will go through a rigorous bipartisan process overseen by representatives from both the Labor and Coalition who will sit as equal co-chairs,” the movement said in a statement.

But the poll shows attitudes hardening in direct proportion to awareness.

Awareness of the referendum is 92 per cent, up 11 points since May and 29 points since December, while more than half, or 55 per cent, now say they have sufficient information to make an informed decision. This is up 9 points since May and 15 points since December.

Of those polled, 50 per cent, an 11 point increase since May, are now certain of their vote and another 21 per cent are “fairly sure”.

Offering hope to the Yes camp is that 25 per cent are undecided and 5 per cent still prepared to change their mind.

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Despite Labor’s blanket support for the Voice, almost one third of Labor voters, 31 per cent, say they plan to vote No, while just 51 per cent will vote Yes. Only 20 per cent of Coalition voters intend to vote Yes and 71 per cent vote No.

Liberal MP and Voice supporter Julian Leeser said the Voice was a chance to make the country a better place. Australians were good-hearted people and wanted to do the right thing by Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders.

Phillip Coorey is the political editor based in Canberra. He is a two-time winner of the Paul Lyneham award for press gallery excellence. Connect with Phillip on Facebook and Twitter. Email Phillip at pcoorey@afr.com

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