The Voice risks becoming a lightning rod for broader discontent

As it turned out, that victory, now more than two years yore, was the last of any significance for the Liberal Party. Since then, it was defeated in Victoria and lost government in South Australia, NSW, and federally. It governs nowhere in the country except Tasmania.

Earlier this year, in the Victorian seat of Aston, it broke a 103-year-old record by becoming the first federal opposition to lose a seat to a government in a byelection.

Thus, it is somewhat of an indictment of the party’s current state that its all-but assured victory in the byelection for the Gold Coast seat of Fadden on Saturday should be a cause for joy.

The Fadden byelection is a result of the resignation of former Coalition minister Stuart Robert. His chequered career – including his not insignificant role as social services minister presiding over the robo-debt disgrace – may put a small dent in the party’s vote in the safe seat which Robert held with a two-party-preferred margin of over 10 per cent at the last federal election.

Anthony Albanese has barely campaigned in Fadden. Initially, he and the rest of the ALP brains trust did not want to contest the byelection.

Queensland is critical to Labor retaining majority government at the next election. Labor holds just five of the states’ 30 seats and needs to build its stocks there given it can no longer rely on the departed McGowan to hold up its numbers in WA.

(Albanese dropped in to Perth in his way home from Europe on Thursday, for what was his 14th visit to WA since the election. His 13th visit was Saturday last week on his way to Europe.)

The Queensland campaign effectively begins this time next month when Labor holds its triennial national conference in Brisbane, a pivotal event which serves as a launchpad towards the next election.

Thus, a byelection loss in the state one month before the conference was regarded by Albanese et al. as a needless distraction and a possible momentum killer, but the local ALP members wanted to run a candidate, so the party is going through the motions.

Peter Dutton, who bobbed up in Fadden on Thursday after lying low in the wake of the robo-debt findings, will not be deterred should there be a swing against the LNP.

A win is a win and a victory is sorely needed. While Labor has focussed on Robert, the Liberals have campaigned in Fadden on youth crime, the cost of living, energy prices and the growing unpopularity of the Palaszczuk state Labor government.

“Send Labor a message,” has been the catch cry.

Which is not dissimilar to how the campaign is shaping up on the Indigenous Voice to parliament.

Ever since Dutton announced the Liberal Party was officially going to oppose the Voice and actively campaign against it, the referendum became a proxy battle between the government and the opposition.

When Australia last held a referendum in 1999, over whether to become a republic, the Howard government was evenly divided and therefore, took no official position. MPs and ministers were allowed to campaign as they wished on the basis they kept it civil among themselves.

All of which is rather extraordinary in that it lends the referendum the patina of a broader political battle, which is what it is rapidly becoming.

This is vastly different. As The Australian Financial Review’s Thomas McIlroy reported this week, it’s not just the official Yes and No campaigns which are going to bombard voters ahead of the referendum, but the political parties themselves.

Opposition MPs have begun electoral mailouts with pamphlets written and authorised by the Liberal Party warning voters the voice is “risky”, “unknown” and “permanent” and that it would have “unlimited scope” over the Reserve Bank of Australia and welfare payments.

Labor is returning fire with an official mailout of its own. All of which is rather extraordinary in that it lends the referendum the patina of a broader political battle, which is what it is rapidly becoming.

Pity the poor buggers who have been fighting for this for years. They and their noble cause risk getting swamped.

Dutton and the vast majority of conservatives oppose the Voice but with Albanese having invested so much personally in advancing the issue, it also looms as an opportunity to wound the prime minister politically.

Using Fadden as a trial run, Dutton is attempting to turn the Voice into a lightning rod for broader discontent with the government, which is palpably more noticeable now after 12 interest rate rises and spiralling power prices.

“We’ve got a prime minister who’s been obsessing over the last 15 months on the Voice, and he’s taken his eye off the ball when it comes to economic management,” alleged Dutton while in Fadden on Thursday.

Such statements are not made without the benefit of focus groups. There is similar grumbling about the PM’s overseas travel.

Despite flagging support in the polls, the Voice still has a pulse. According to the myriad public polls, the Yes vote nationally is stuck between 40 per cent and 45 per cent, as is the No vote. Capturing the undecided middle will be critical.

Securing four of the six states to achieve the double majority will be even harder.

In reality, Albanese, using the full imprimatur of his office, is going to have to grab this thing by the scruff of the neck to help haul it across the line if it is going to get up.

Which in itself presents a conundrum.

The more he talks about the Voice, the crankier a large demographic of voters becomes. At the same time, it is not in his political interest for it to fail. Far from it.