Support for Labor, Albanese, Voice slides

Less than a third, or 31 per cent, feel the country is headed in the right direction, a decline of 6 percentage points since the last AFR/Freshwater poll in May, while 56 per cent (up 8 points) feel the country is headed in the wrong direction.

The outlook for personal finances and wellbeing was equally bleak.

The nationwide poll of 1003 voters was taken from Friday to Sunday, at the end of a tempestuous period for the government which included its fumbling over Qantas, and blanket condemnation for announcing a long-awaited review into the pandemic that exempted an examination of lockdowns, school closures and other unilateral actions of the states.

After a strong start to government, Labor’s primary vote is back at the election-day level of 33 per cent, which is 4 percentage points lower than in December, and 1 point down on the May poll.

The Coalition, which won 36 per cent of the primary vote on election day, sits on 37 per cent, which has been unchanged over the last two polls, while the Greens are on 13 per cent.

On a two-party preferred basis, Labor leads the Coalition by 51 per cent to 49 per cent, which is down on the election day result of 52-48.

Anthony Albanese’s strong personal advantage over Opposition Leader Peter Dutton continues to erode. He leads Mr Dutton as preferred prime minister by 46 per cent to 37 per cent. That lead has closed by 9 points since May and 17 points since December.

Since May, Mr Albanese’s net approval rating has fallen 8 points to minus 3, while Mr Dutton’s has risen 2 points to minus 10.

The poll detects frustration with the attention given to the Voice to parliament, which will be put to a referendum on October 14.

Awareness of the referendum has increased markedly since May, but support has nosedived.

Just 33 per cent say they will vote Yes, which is down 15 points since May. Fifty per cent say they will vote No and 17 per cent are undecided,

When the undecided voters are excluded, the Yes vote rises to 40 per cent and the No vote rises to 60 per cent.

On Sunday, Mr Albanese sought to blunt a scare campaign by the Opposition about the consequences of the Voice by promising the Coalition an equal say in its design should the Yes vote prevail on referendum day.

Launching the Uniting Church’s Yes campaign in Sydney, the prime minister said if the nation voted Yes on October 14, he would establish a broad joint parliamentary committee, with co-chairs from Labor and the Coalition, to oversee the development of legislation for the Voice advisory group.

The poll shows people want the government focused on core issues.

Last week, Treasurer Jim Chalmers took credit for the first budget surplus since 2007-08 when he announced a $22 billion surplus for 2022-23.

But the poll shows Labor now lags the Coalition by 29 per cent to 38 per cent as economic managers, which is a worsening of 5 points since May.

At the same time, however, economic management is the fourth-highest issue of concern, cited by 25 per cent of voters – a 10 per cent fall since May.

Labor’s embrace of the AUKUS security pact has not helped its national security bona fides. It trails the Coalition on defence and national security by 12 points.

Mr Albanese has warned his MPs frequently that Labor needs strong credentials on the economy and national security to increase its standing at the next election, due by early 2025.

Despite throwing $3 billion at public housing, increasing rental assistance and securing the passage of the Housing Australia Future Fund, Labor’s lead over the Coalition on “housing and accommodation” has slid 7 points since May to 3 points, or 32 per cent to 29 per cent.

The cost of living remains firmly entrenched as the number one issue of concern for voters, as cited by 77 per cent of those polled, an increase of 4 points since May. Housing and accommodation comes a distant second at 44 per cent.

The government’s handling of the cost of living has slipped by 4 points since May, and it now trails the Coalition by 30 per cent to 32 per cent.

Voter pessimism remains another significant challenge.

Just over half of Labor voters, or 53 per cent, believe the country is headed in the right direction, but that is down 7 per cent since May.

Only 29 per cent of Coalition voters, and 29 per cent of Greens voters, share this optimism.

Morever, just 24 per cent of voters feel their household finances will be better off in a year, while 31 per cent feel there will be no change and 43 per cent believe things will get worse.