Putin seeks to exploit Israel-Hamas war

Conservative and Labour leaders offered support for Israel. But left-wing members of the Labour Party, holding its annual conference this week, condemned Israel’s response and its past actions in the Palestinian territories. In Ireland, Sinn Fein struggles with similar divisions.

Putin plays all sides

Russian President Vladimir Putin, meanwhile, appears set to exploit the crisis to further his claims to be the leader of the non-Western world.

Arab League chief Ahmed Aboul Gheit, a former Egyptian foreign minister, has been in Moscow to discuss the crisis with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov. Iraqi PM Mohammed Shia al-Sudani is travelling to Moscow on Tuesday, and Russian state media said Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas was also on his way.

“For Tehran and Moscow, Ukraine and Israel have become two fronts in a wider clash between East and West,” foreign correspondent David Patrikarikos wrote on the website Unherd. “Every Hamas rocket that strikes homes is not merely another act of terror but yet one more hole punched through the Western order.”

Russia has close ties to Iran and Hamas, and Putin’s reliance on Iranian weaponry for his Ukraine war could box him into a corner in this conflict. But since invading Ukraine he has maintained relations with more US-friendly countries such as Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates – states which have not swung behind the US and Europe over Ukraine.

Israel is not going to give him much space for a brokering role, but he can try to look statesmanlike and play to the non-Western gallery.

“Washington will struggle to negotiate a lasting peace agreement. Russia, playing all sides, is better placed,” the former diplomats at the Geopolitical Dispatch newsletter wrote on Monday.

The five western leaders – UK PM Rishi Sunak, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Italian PM Giorgia Meloni and President Joe Biden – used their statement to try to assert that role for themselves.

“Over the coming days, we will remain united and co-ordinated, together as allies, and as common friends of Israel, to ensure Israel is able to defend itself, and to ultimately set the conditions for a peaceful and integrated Middle East region,” the five leaders wrote.

Europeans apathetic

But that unity may be difficult to sustain, as events in Brussels in the past 24 hours have shown. Following the Saturday attack, the European Commission said it would suspend €691 million ($1.1 billion) in aid to the Palestinian Authority. This triggered a behind-the-scenes backlash from more Palestine-friendly EU states. So the EC then made clear humanitarian aid would “continue as long as needed”, and officials reframed the announcement as a technical review to ensure no funds would reach Hamas.

A videoconference of the EU’s 27 foreign ministers on Tuesday may struggle to find a consensus position, especially as Israel steps up its attacks in Gaza. The division among politicians follows a YouGov poll in May that showed surprisingly few Europeans care deeply about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Spain and Italy were the most engaged: in those countries, more than 40 per cent of people said the conflict mattered to them “a great deal” or “a fair amount”, and about the proportion said “not very much” or “not at all”.

After that, engagement drops away. In France, 37 per cent said they cared, and 47 per cent were indifferent; interest drops down another leg to Sweden, Britain and Denmark. In Germany, just 18 per cent say the conflict mattered to them, 73 per cent say it does not.

Asked which side they sympathised with, the poll five months ago showed more than 40 per cent in each country were not sure, and between 15 per cent and 25 per cent of people said “both sides equally”.

Among those who picked a side, in all countries but Germany support for the Palestinians was higher than for the Israelis – particularly in Britain.

A new YouGov poll this week suggests sympathy has shifted towards Israel following Hamas’ weekend attacks.

In May, 10 per cent leaned to Israel; that has now doubled to 21 per cent. Support for the Palestinians has dropped to 15 per cent from 23 per cent. The “don’t knows” and the “both sides equally” contingent each remained about the same.