PM’s message an important reminder of Labor’s fragile hold on power

“All of this depends, of course, on bringing people with us on the journey, earning and repaying people’s trust, delivering meaningful help for Australians, demonstrating our responsible approach on everything from the economy to foreign policy to national security, and showing we are capable of bringing people together in the national interest.

“It mightn’t suit the agenda of those who prefer protest to progress, who imagine that grand gestures and bold declarations are better than the patient work of ensuring lasting change. But we’re not here in the Labor for mere gestures.

‘Go the distance’

“We are here to change the country, to go the distance, to get to the destination, to deliver the better future that we promised.”

There is a lot that can be read into the PM’s comments. His reference to earning and repaying trust is a reason he opposes touching the stage three tax cuts, in fulfilment of a Labor promise.

Subsequently, no one at the conference mentioned stage three during the economic debate on Thursday. Similarly, a thundering threat by the CFMEU to demand a 40 per cent super profits tax was watered down to a meaningless motion advocating tax reform.

Albanese’s equating the importance of foreign policy with economic policy was a message to those jumping up and down over the AUKUS security pact, which will dominate day two of the conference.

No motion or amendment contradicting the government’s position on AUKUS will prevail, but the party hierarchy is cognisant of the political damage a rowdy debate will cause.

His reference to those who prefer protest to progress was also aimed at the populist policies of the Greens and those who may be tempted by them.

What the PM did not mention, but is acutely aware, is the fragility of his government’s hold on power. It warrants a broader airing.

It is not inconceivable that right now, Labor is notionally in minority government, because of the various ebbs and flows since last year’s election.

So stable and disciplined has it been since its victory in May last year, that it is easy to forget Labor governs with only a small majority.

The stability has been buttressed by a few factors: a lingering sheepishness among the veterans of the last Labor government, which blew itself to smithereens with ill-discipline, is one.

The party rule that mandates the expulsion of anyone who crosses the floor always helps.

In contrast, when the Coalition held power by a slim majority under both Malcolm Turnbull and Scott Morrison, ratbags and malcontents such as the now-departed George Christensen were able to frequently destabilise and threaten to collapse the government by warning that they would cross the floor or quit when they didn’t get what they wanted.

Not that there has been any willingness by anyone in the Albanese government to behave in such a manner. Not even close. Apart from the odd frisson over stage three and AUKUS, the caucus by and large has been locked in behind every decision.

But the barest majority in the 151-seat parliament is 76 seats. Labor won 77 seats at the election and now has 78 after its victory in the Aston byelection in April.

Based on anecdotal evidence and polls, however, Labor’s notional number of seats right now could be closer to 74 or 75.

In Western Australia, for example, where Labor exceeded expectations last year because of the popularity of Mark McGowan and the unpopularity of Scott Morrison, there has been somewhat of a correction and Labor could be down two seats there already on a notional basis.

There will be an electoral redistribution in WA with an extra seat to be created. It is not clear yet which party will benefit.

No obvious gains in Queensland

Elsewhere, as of now, there are no obvious gains for the ALP in Queensland, where it holds just five of the 30 seats. It is no coincidence this is the first national conference in Queensland in 50 years.

In Victoria, there will also be a redistribution and Labor stands to lose a seat, with either Chisholm or Hotham the hot tips.

The Liberals are also quietly confident Aston will come back at the next election, as the Labor brand in Victoria starts to creak under the excesses of Dan Andrews and the cost of living.

Only in NSW, where there will also be a redistribution, are the Liberals worried.

Based on the demographics, the smart money is that one of the Teal seats, Mackellar or Warringah, will be abolished, which doesn’t exactly help the Liberals over the longer term because both are seats they need to take back. If it’s not one of these seats that is axed, it could be a Liberal seat such as Berowra or Bradfield.

“I can only see bad news for us either way in NSW,” said a Liberal strategist.

Either way, the Liberal Party’s NSW concerns don’t help Labor in terms of maintaining its numerical ascendancy at the next election.

To win power at the next election, Peter Dutton would need to pull off a victory similar in scale to John Howard’s 1996 landslide over Paul Keating. The then government was old and tired. That won’t be the case in 2025.

Dutton will not go into the election planning to lose. He tells people that when you run on the field in the grand final, you’ve got to believe you can win.

More realistically, however, the next election will be a contest over whether Labor can stay in majority or be pushed into minority, with the risk, as the Liberals are hoping, that the latter becomes every bit as dysfunctional as the last minority government.