Nationals already back Labor’s net zero – they just don’t know it

Joyce reportedly told the conference in Canberra that the party’s current stance of opposing pathways to net zero, such as transmission lines and methane reductions, was inconsistent with continuing to support the 2050 target.

Trying to do both is “counterintuitive and counterfactual”, he said, according to AAP.

Joyce is being careful to avoid blowing up the issue too much – primarily because doing so would trigger leadership speculation against David Littleproud, who backs net zero.

But the issue still burns every fibre of Joyce’s political soul, ever since he agreed with former prime minister Scott Morrison to swing the Nationals behind the 2050 goal just before the Glasgow UN climate summit in late 2021.

By Monday morning, it became clear just how much the issue continues to roil the Nationals.

Whether they like it or not – and many do not – their official stated policies mean they fully own the 2030 target that Labor and the Greens legislated a year ago.

They just don’t fully realise it yet.

Global commitment

The reasons are underappreciated in the current debate. But they are real.

Littleproud told Sky TV on Monday morning that the National’s beef was with Labor’s 2030 target, not the 2050 one.

“Our net zero is a lot different to what Labor’s is. And the fact that they’ve accelerated 2030 is putting all this pressure ... on electricity bills that you’re paying for now.”

Now here’s where it gets tricky for Littleproud and the rest of the Coalition.

Labor’s 2030 target – which, to reiterate, aims to cut emissions on 2005 levels by 43 per cent in 2030 – was formally lodged with the UN after the May election as Australia’s globally binding contribution to the 2015 Paris Agreement. That agreement aims to keep global warming below 2 degrees.

The Albanese target is materially more ambitious than the previous Coalition government’s official UN-registered target of between 26 per cent to 28 per cent by 2030.

Backtracking

The problem for Littleproud is that the Paris Agreement does not allow for backtracking of these so-called Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). The only change a country can make, is to increase the target. Or withdraw.

The rules of the Paris Agreement, which Australia signed up to under Tony Abbott, is designed in international law to be a one-way ratcheting mechanism.

Under provision 4.11 of the agreement, each successive NDC “will represent a progression” on the current NDC “and reflect its highest possible ambition”.

Lowering an NDC would be regarded as a breach of international law.

Which is why Littleproud’s opposition to the government’s current 43 per cent NDC target puts him at odds with Australia’s international commitment.

And on that point, Littleproud snookered himself this morning.

Asked by Sky’s Laura Jayes whether he essentially agreed with Joyce on ditching net zero, Littleproud was declarative: “No, we believe in our international commitments.”

And then added: “We’re saying, we’ve got time, we don’t need to do this by 2030, we can plan and get this properly achieved, live up to international commitments and make sure that we have affordable energy that’s reliable and reduces our emissions.”

Unfortunately for Littleproud, that’s not the case. He cannot support the Paris Agreement while opposing the current 43 per cent 2030 target. One will have to give.

Littleproud has sought to position himself as a pragmatic supporter of the need to decarbonise the economy, but by relying on nuclear power rather than renewables.

Were the Coalition to suddenly regain office they’d be internationally bound to deliver on the 43 per cent emissions reduction within less than seven years.

And that’s well before we get to the looming argument about what Australia’s 2035 national emissions target should be.