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Media’s $100b man says the ad market has room to grow

Sam Buckingham-Jones
Sam Buckingham-JonesMedia and marketing reporter

Christian Juhl sits atop a $100 billion-a-year budget and is one of the world’s most powerful media executives.

As the global boss of GroupM, the biggest advertising buying group in the world, he oversees the combined spending power for thousands of brands, including Ford, Colgate-Palmolive, Google, Nestlé, Unilever, Mars and Coca-Cola.

GroupM uses that scale to buy media space and sell it back to its clients. Each year, according to the best independent estimates, GroupM spends almost $US64 billion ($101 billion) of its clients’ money on ads.

Christian Juhl, global CEO of GroupM, the largest media investment organisation in the world.  Dominic Lorrimer

At that level, a media executive can talk in sweeping, market-wide statements. Wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, clear inflationary pressures, an unsteady future for commercial real estate, and higher interest rates will have tremendous impact on advertising and media markets. It just hasn’t been fully felt yet, Mr Juhl said.

Locally, the ad industry accounts for $53 billion, or 2.1 per cent of GDP, new research released on Friday found. GroupM predicted advertising revenue – how much the world’s advertisers spend – will grow 5.9 per cent in 2023 and 6 per cent in 2024.

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“I certainly see all of those unknowns out there, that makes you careful about the future,” Mr Juhl said.

“But generally, I think it’s been a pretty resilient marketplace. We’ve still been able to provide growth for our clients during that time period. I’m still cautiously optimistic we can find ways of growth through this.”

Advertising is going through a resurgence, he said. Rolling lockdowns and forced isolation during COVID-19 drove huge adoption of digital channels. Meta burned billions of dollars on a metaverse then launched a Twitter clone called Threads, TikTok kept growing at breakneck speed, and Netflix, Amazon Prime Video and Disney+ have all started adding advertising-subsidised tiers to their platforms.

“Advertising has always been a really important part of the economy. It was more surprising when you had [Netflix executives] Reed Hastings or Ted Sarandos saying, ‘We’ll never take advertising on Netflix’,” Mr Juhl said.

“How do you have such large valuable audiences and not open it up in a meaningful way to brands? [Now] there’s probably more inventory available than there’s been in a long time.”

The days of the massive, culture-defining 30- or 60-second ad spot are fading, Mr Juhl said, despite the drawcards of the Super Bowl and the Olympics. “But, largely, viewership on those has been on the decline for some time,” he said.

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Likewise, the resurgence of advertising is happening while tech and media companies slash costs. That’s an inevitable correction, he said.

“There’s been so much stimulus put into the market, and there’s been so much growth post COVID, that there’s a natural time right now where I think a lot of companies are just [thinking], ‘Should we slow down?’ So I think that’s more of a natural cycle than sort of ‘Hey, let’s panic and run for the hills,’” Mr Juhl said.

“You have to look at that in the grand scheme of things. We’re still looking at a massive growth mountain over the last four years.”

The true impact of rapid interest rate rises is yet to be fully felt, he said. At some point, that will severely hit consumer spending. But Mr Juhl is upbeat about the future. Government interventions to rescue businesses like Silicon Valley Bank should give some confidence to the market.

“I wouldn’t underestimate governments changing positions quickly in face of all this uncertainty to provide security for those that have been over-extended,” he said. “What happened? They bailed them out. There’s reason to still be optimistic.”

Sam Buckingham-Jones is the media and marketing reporter at The Australian Financial Review. Connect with Sam on Twitter.

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