Israel confronts its grim choices

Jordan’s foreign minister, Ayman Safadi, declared “no-one in this part of the world is going to believe intelligence based on Israeli intelligence”. Mass deaths in a hospital car park quickly and easily become converted into mass belief that they are yet another example of Israel’s bloody, brutal repression of Palestinian lives and futures. For millions, they become symbols of Israel’s decades of oppression, even as an outraged Israel mourns its 1400 slaughtered victims and tries to comprehend the horror of 200 Israeli hostages being held in Gaza.

It means Hamas has already succeeded in many of its aims. They include persuading Israel’s neighbours they can’t be seen to be backing cooperation or further normalisation of relations with “war criminals”.

It’s another marker of the dilemmas suddenly facing the US in the Middle East after becoming more focused recently on the Asia Pacific and the threat from China.

This has crippled Joe Biden’s hopes of brokering a deal with Saudi Arabia and Israel to build on the 2020 Abraham Accords between Israel and the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain.

And it is also inflaming and extending existing antagonism towards the US as Israel’s staunchest ally. The riots outside US embassies across the Middle East and much of the world are self-reinforcing. The plight of Palestinians can no longer be conveniently ignored by much of the world, as it has been in recent years. Yet neither can the terrorist slaughter by Hamas.

The president’s lightning trip to Israel – to try to calm the potential for broader regional conflict and to caution against Israel’s rage becoming “consuming” – was always high risk. Now it risks backfiring politically within the region, consolidating anger about the extent of US support for Israel.

In geopolitical terms, Russia and China are the obvious beneficiaries as they point to the hypocrisy of the West and its talk of respecting human rights and the global order.

The horrific pictures from the hospital – and Hamas’ claims about Israel’s culpability – had already led to the abrupt cancellation of Biden’s planned trip to Jordan after Israel to meet the leaders of Jordan, Egypt and the Palestinian Authority. This countered the president’s efforts to be seen to be talking to all sides at such a dangerous time.

It’s another marker of the dilemmas suddenly facing the US in the Middle East after becoming more focused recently on the Asia-Pacific and the threat from China.

During his visit, Biden repeated that Hamas didn’t represent the Palestinian people and that he mourned the loss of innocent Palestinian lives. He also expressed America’s unwavering support for Israel.

“We will continue to have Israel’s back as you work to defend your people,” he told Israelis.

That’s even though Biden insisted he had also held “very blunt conversations” about Israel being held accountable worldwide if it didn’t “relieve the suffering of people with nowhere to go”.

“I came to get something done, I got it done,” he told reporters en route back to Washington on Airforce One.

Yet his claim his intervention succeeded in having Israel and Egypt allow humanitarian aid to get through from Egypt is extremely modest in its scope – up to 20 trucks. It will first require the damage done by bombing near the Rafah crossing to be repaired – taking precious time in a place that has run out of it.

According to Biden, he also had long talks in Israel about “alternatives” to the anticipated ground invasion of Gaza by the Israeli Defence Forces, for which 360,000 reservists have been called up in preparation. Such alternatives presumably include the “unprecedented package” of about $10 billion worth of US military aid and a promise to keep Israel’s anti-missile system Iron Dome “fully supplied”.

Will that be anywhere near enough to deflect Israel’s determination to somehow root out Hamas?

Biden noted the US had made “some mistakes” in seeking and obtaining justice after 9/11, urging Israel to have clarity about its war objectives and not become consumed by rage.

But that only shows the unpredictability of what will happen – certain to overwhelm Anthony Albanese’s trip to Washington next week. Even more certain is Peter Dutton’s not-so-idle suggestion the prime minister go via Tel Aviv won’t be taken up. Albanese won’t follow Rishi Sunak’s example. It’s not only because Albanese prefers to manage domestic community sensitivities and Labor’s own internal divisions. Israel surely has more urgent concerns than hosting a show of solidarity from a country with no real influence over this fast-moving crisis.