Is the planet staggering towards global conflict?

This confrontation between the liberal democracies, led by the US, and the autocracies is gradually becoming worse. We have to understand that. This is what could happen.

Imagine as Israel pushes into Gaza to try to destroy Hamas, Hezbollah – on the orders of Iran – launches an invasion of Israel from the north. At the same time, Iran foments an uprising on the West Bank. The Israeli defence force would be fighting on three fronts. Assume Iran becomes increasingly involved in these attacks on Israel and Israel has trouble coping. In that circumstance, the US would have to become directly involved in support of Israel. Some of America’s allies such as the UK might also help.

As we know from the 1930s, appeasement only encourages autocrats; or, as Donald Rumsfeld used to say, weakness is provocative.

In this environment, the Russians could choose to expand their aggression in Eastern Europe. China might decide to provide military equipment to Russia to help with the war in Ukraine, and the Russians themselves may expand their aggression to Moldova and Georgia. The Americans, and their allies, already under pressure to provide direct support to Israel, may struggle to increase support to Ukraine and other countries in East Europe. They would try, but the challenge would be formidable.

Now let’s think about China. Perhaps in that environment the Chinese leadership may think this is an opportune time to put greater pressure on Taiwan. They might decide to introduce some system of maritime and air blockade of Taiwan. The Americans would feel under obligation to try to break the blockade and keep Taiwan’s supply of essential natural resources and foodstuff open.

In this catastrophic environment, you would end up with something approaching a world war. Iran, Russia and China would all be collaborating to deal with their own specific problems while the United States would be calling up the support of all its key allies to help counter the autocracies in each of these theatres.

Could this catastrophic scenario eventuate? Well, if you were a bourgeois punting on the Cam or enjoying a grande kirsch on the Promenade des Anglais in Nice in the early summer of 1914, you’d never have thought that by the end of August that year the world would be thrust into the most bloody and horrific war it had ever known. Let us not forget that.

I won’t pretend I’ve been a great fan of Joe Biden but his response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the slaughter of Jews by Hamas has been exemplary. His address to the nation at the end of last week was the highlight of his presidency. He summoned the spirit and the leadership of America to confront these threats to liberal democracy. Rishi Sunak, the British prime minister, has shown equal resolve through this period and has been supported by Britain’s Labour opposition without dissent. Take heart also from the strong support the Americans are now getting from Emmanuel Macron, and from the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz. And Japan is proving to be a reliable and robust ally. This reaction has been vital if a spreading war is to be avoided.

Iran, Russia, and China all need to understand that if they overreach there will be a huge price to pay. And it won’t be just America that responds to them. It will be America and its very substantial network of alliances.

Where does Australia fit into all this? Well, our prime minister will soon be visiting China, and it will be an opportunity for him as he attempts to rehabilitate Australia’s relationship with China to make it clear to China’s leadership that Australia, as part of a network of alliances of liberal democracies, expects China to urge Iran to desist from attempting to kill the Jewish people and to urge Russia to end its foolhardy invasion of Ukraine. What is more, Albanese needs to be brutally frank with Xi Jinping about Taiwan. Although Australia has a one China policy, America’s is more ambiguous – it uses the expression “constructive ambiguity”. Xi should take seriously Biden’s four warnings that, in the event of Taiwan’s security being threatened, America will come to Taiwan’s assistance. So will Japan.

The best way to stop war spreading is to make clear to our adversaries the incalculable price they would pay for their bellicose behaviour. We need to convince Russia it will never take Ukraine, Iran that Israel will be there forever, and China that unification with Taiwan can happen only if both sides agree to the terms. As we know from the 1930s, appeasement only encourages autocrats; or, as Donald Rumsfeld used to say, weakness is provocative.

Alexander Downer was Australia’s longest serving foreign minister, from 1996 to 2007, and most recently Australian high commissioner to the UK.