Down but not out, the Voice could still be heard

So, with good humour, he yielded.

“See, you’ve got an exclusive, an absolute exclusive. It’s likely to be the first Saturday in November,” he told the kids.

As it turned out, announcing the date six months out didn’t really matter.

The strategy has a whiff of last-roll-of-the dice about it and, as the last election showed, Albanese is not renowned for his campaign skills.

The Yes campaign was pretty much doomed from the start due to its reputation as an elitist pursuit, but mostly because of the deep division among republicans.

There were those advocating the actual parliamentary appointment model that was being put to the referendum, and those demanding the president be directly elected.

So dopey was the latter mob that, with the full encouragement of the monarchists who couldn’t quite believe their luck, they campaigned for a No vote with an assurance there would be another referendum soon with a direct-elect model proposed.

Talk about being played off a break. The republic’s defeat will chalk up its 25th anniversary next year and, if the proposed Indigenous Voice to parliament goes down this year, it will be a long time before a government has another crack at becoming a republic, or proposing any other referendum.

But is the Voice as doomed as popular opinion now suggests?

Despite the myriad public opinion polls all showing the Yes vote having declined over recent months to below 50 per cent, while the No vote has risen, and, in some cases exceeded the Yes vote, there remains a defiant optimism inside government and the Yes23 campaign that the referendum is still up for grabs.

This is principally because the more granular research being undertaken privately shows the No vote as reported in the public polls is a lot softer than the Yes vote.

This has been reflected in recent separate polling undertaken by Labor, the Yes23 campaign and other private research.

On Thursday, The Australian Financial Review reported one poll – a Roy Morgan poll of more than 2700 people taken a month ago found a solid 48.2 per cent Yes vote, in that they were very certain or certain that was how they would vote.

The solid No vote was 27.9 per cent while 23.9 per cent were considered “up for grabs”.

Labor’s encouraging mega-poll

This column can also reveal that earlier this month, over a two-week period, federal Labor undertook the biggest survey it has conducted outside a federal election campaign.

The in-house exercise sampled the views of 14,300 voters nationally in an exercise it said was much more granular than just a national poll.

Superficially, it found the Yes vote to be 48 per cent and the No vote 47 per cent, with 5 per cent undecided.

But when voters were pushed and the responses further distilled, 32 per cent were classified as either undecided or “soft”, which meant they were still open to changing their minds.

The hard Yes vote was just shy of 40 per cent, while the hard No vote was around 30 per cent.

Given a referendum needs a double majority to pass, meaning it needs a national majority and a majority in at least four of the six states, the mega-poll offered encouragement on both fronts.

The Yes vote was ahead in Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania, tied in NSW at 47-47, while in Queensland and Western Australia, 28 per cent of No voters were open to changing their minds.

Given Tony Abbott’s comments this week, it appears the No camp is picking up the same sentiment.

Abbott, who has never advocated a Yes case in his life, has resurfaced to fight the Voice which, based on the impact he had on the same-sex marriage campaign, might help the Yes vote.

Nonetheless, Abbott warned against complacency, saying the Yes campaign could yet “buy” the referendum with a short, well-funded campaign.

“There is still an avalanche of money being provided by woke public companies, woke foundations and billionaires,” he said.

Strip away the pejoratives, and he’s not far off.

Expect a short, sharp blitz

Labor’s mega-survey (the findings of which are reflected by Yes23 campaign research and polls such as Morgan) coincided with Anthony Albanese’s change of strategy a fortnight ago, in which he dumped plans to announce the referendum date at the Garma Festival in just over a week.

The prime minister said, instead, he would hold the date close to his chest and announce it like he was calling an election.

“There needs to be at least 33 days’ notice of the referendum campaign, but there certainly doesn’t need to be that very long a campaign. And once the date’s announced, then the campaign will be on in earnest,” he said.

“I don’t think Australians appreciate very long campaigns. That’s been the case in the past, so I don’t envisage it this time.”

In other words, it will be a short, sharp, well-funded blitz that will appeal to the better angels of the large swath of soft and undecided voters.

It is felt that putting the date out any earlier than absolutely necessary could deter some undecideds, a bit like a pushy shop assistant hassling somebody who is interested, but just browsing.

Unlike the republic, the Yes campaign is united, as is the government of the day. And despite claims to the contrary by the No camp, there is a conscious effort to minimise the role of celebrities and other so-called elites.

The strategy has a whiff of last-roll-of-the dice about it and, as the last election showed, Albanese is not renowned for his campaign skills.

But with a reinvigorated and disciplined Noel Pearson riding shotgun, maybe, just maybe, history will be defied, and the referendum will get up.