Demand for fossil fuels will peak by 2030: global energy body

Despite Dr Birol’s insistence that the transition is unstoppable, the report warns that current policy and investment trajectories are still not enough to keep global temperatures from rising beyond 1.5 degrees.

A scorching northern hemisphere summer has also raised questions about the degree to which regions such as Europe and North America are prepared for hotter temperatures.

A rise beyond 1.5 degrees “risks not only worsening climate impacts after a year of record-breaking heat, but also undermining the security of the energy system, which was built for a cooler world with less extreme weather events”, the agency said.

The most significant changes in this year’s report include an acceptance that fossil fuel use will remain higher than anticipated as challenges such as supply chain disruption and approvals for new grid infrastructure mount.

However, the agency says net zero by 2050 remains on track, thanks to an accelerating rollout of clean technology.

It predicts that by 2030 there will be almost 10 times as many electric vehicles on global roads, solar will generate more electricity than the entire US power system does today, and renewable shares of the global mix will reach 50 per cent from 30 per cent.

Three times as much investment is flowing to offshore wind projects than new coal- and gas-fired power stations, which will help cut the share of fossil fuels in global energy supply by 2030 to 73 per cent from 80 per cent.

This year’s report also notes key differences between now and the early 1970s, when a series of OPEC shocks led to the agency’s creation and wealthy nations scrambled to reduce their reliance on imported energy.

“A key difference between the 1970s and today is that the solutions to today’s energy dilemmas are at our disposal,” the agency said in the report.

Whereas in 2020 one in 25 cars sold was electric, this year the number has leapt to one in five.

A record 500 gigawatts of renewable energy generation will be added this year and for every dollar spent on fossil fuels, $1.80 is spent on clean energy. Five years ago, the ratio was one-to-one.

Coal exports from Australia are expected to fall by 85 per cent between 2022 and 2050.

“The world is much better prepared than we were 50 years ago. We know what we need to do and where we need to go,” said Dr Birol. “At the same time, the challenges are much broader and more complex – energy security and climate are interwoven, and claiming that we need to focus on just one or the other is a blinkered view.”